Likely Cupra Residual Values

[Al]

Guys,

I have been trying to take a guess at the Cupra residuals for the next couple of years.

It looks realistically that they go something like this;

New - £19-£20k
6 month old - 5k - £17k
1 Year 10k - £15k
2 Year 20k - £12k

I am guessing that the facelift will probably knock another 10% off the value of current model cars over and above normal depreciation this year therefore making the next years depreciation that bit harder for current model cars. Add to this the new Cupra R model which will make the Cupra less desirable, and I think there may be a bit more value to fall.

Therefore next year I am thinking this;

New Cupra (R)- £20k
6 month old new style Cupra (R)
1 Year old shape Cupra 10k - £13.5k
2 year old shape Cupra 20k - £10.5k
3 year old shape Cupra 30k - £9k

What do you think?

 

[robdf2]

is this to do with you selling and getting a cosworth?

 

[Al]

Na, to do with the possibility of me keeping the car another year.

I am genuinely interested to see how the likely end value is likely to be with it being 3 years old, old style, no longer top line model etc.

 

[ZBOYD]

I believe the used market will recover faster than the new car market will. I also believe that cars like the Cupra will level out at 3-4 years and even hold onto their money relative to the market.

The Cupra R did something similar it took a bit of a nosedive early on, but then levelled out and prices stayed fairly buoyant, as it fell into the sector that the demand could afford to pay for something special.

However I doubt I will buy new again unless there are some seriously keen offers on the table, it's frankly too painful for a £22k car to dissolve money to the extent it has done.

 

[robdf2]

i do hope so Z .
what i think helps is the golf is still flooding the market and the leon still has the rareity value.
Also dont think the face lift models will hurt our models too much , the changes are not radical enough imho.

 

[Al]

So do you reckon I am a bit off the mark with the numbers above then?

Regarding values disappearing, I agree. However, the way I see it after looking at loads of options, there is no cheap way of owning a reasonably new reasonable car like a Cupra or something of similar value.

Only today I got a quote for an A3 2.0TDi Sportback for £4500 down, 24 months at £350 then a final payment of something like £10k for PCP.

A lease deal on a new Golf GT TDi is 3 x £300 +VAT downpayment followed by 23 x £300+VAT for the rest of the period.

Working out the cost for both shows that buying is actually a better deal except obviously you are paying for it up front or using loaned money.

The only way to do it cheap and have a reasonably new car is to buy something like a 3 year old Mondeo for under £5k, run it for 2 years and sell it for £2k - losing only £1.5k a year plus upkeep/repairs.

Whatever way you look at it, the amount of money you lose on a Cupra and most new cars is mad

 

[warren_cox]

Audi was £32.2k new, and currently at 2 years old with 23k on the clock a dealer would offer me around £18k'ish depending on what I was trading in for (something around £30k odd).

That is £14k hit in 2 years which against what I was expecting is too high. I think I will have to buy the car outright at the end of 3 years and run it for another 2 in order to make it more bearable. When they facelifted it in '58 plate I lost 3k in a month

I know you don't ever buy a car with any illusion it will make let alone hold its value, but lately it has not been good for anyone who has recently bought new.

 

[ZBOYD]

I think if the demand is there then the money will be there too. At the moment, a Cupra may not be No1 choice for the budget conscious. But there is a market for used hot-hatches, it's just waiting for the money and age to catch up with the demand.

A 2-3 year old car won't put off a punters interest just because SEAT release a Cupra R model or facelifted model. Those would be brand new, and out of their budget range, they would have to wait another 2 years or more before they were in the price range. So I would discount the effect of new models entirely except on those cars that are like 6 months to a year older.

I held onto my Cupra R for almost 4 years, and it went for what I felt was a good price, relative to what I paid for it. At the moment it's hard to see where the true Mk2 Cupra value lies, the market isn't great for hot hatches given the economics of the moment. But in another 12-18 months the economics could be very different.

I'm not going to panic now, I might as well hold onto the Cupra for a similar period of time 3-4 years and see how it pans out. I bought it to enjoy it and not to worry so much about what it's worth when I sell it.

Even dealers have been saying in the press and on the industry wire, that used car prices are on the up. The banks are slowly beginning to lend again, even mortgages were up in the last month.

I think it's a wait and see scenario really. Even if you sold the car, bought a cheap runner and invested the money into savings to buy something newer at a later date, the interest rates mean it would be a crap return on the capital anyway.

 

[Deleted member 35811]

I think if the demand is there then the money will be there too. At the moment, a Cupra may not be No1 choice for the budget conscious. But there is a market for used hot-hatches, it's just waiting for the money and age to catch up with the demand.

A 2-3 year old car won't put off a punters interest just because SEAT release a Cupra R model or facelifted model. Those would be brand new, and out of their budget range, they would have to wait another 2 years or more before they were in the price range. So I would discount the effect of new models entirely except on those cars that are like 6 months to a year older.

I held onto my Cupra R for almost 4 years, and it went for what I felt was a good price, relative to what I paid for it. At the moment it's hard to see where the true Mk2 Cupra value lies, the market isn't great for hot hatches given the economics of the moment. But in another 12-18 months the economics could be very different.

I'm not going to panic now, I might as well hold onto the Cupra for a similar period of time 3-4 years and see how it pans out. I bought it to enjoy it and not to worry so much about what it's worth when I sell it.

Even dealers have been saying in the press and on the industry wire, that used car prices are on the up. The banks are slowly beginning to lend again, even mortgages were up in the last month.

I think it's a wait and see scenario really. Even if you sold the car, bought a cheap runner and invested the money into savings to buy something newer at a later date, the interest rates mean it would be a crap return on the capital anyway.

Good Angle...

 

[Al]

£14k hit in 2 years

Then again, I know someone who just bought an 07 S3 for £19k and it was a fully loaded minter. Thats a huge hit to take in 2 years....

 

[warren_cox]

Then again, I know someone who just bought an 07 S3 for £19k and it was a fully loaded minter. Thats a huge hit to take in 2 years....

Only options I don't have are bucket seats (£1600), and rear parking sensors. Otherwise fully specced. Supposedly most of the mags were guesstimating a 56-60% retained value after 3 years, but very little chance of that!

I checked with the stealer if we owed more or less on the car than it was actually worth, and fortunately, and only because we put down the max 30% deposit in cash we're not in negative equity on the car! Could have been worse if I'd bought an Alfa Brera though.

For people who take a VW options finance plan, and put down a minimum deposit, if the cars value has dropped markedly over 3 years do you have to make a contribution payment at the end of the period or does the dealer take that hit as you've been paying an agreed amount as specified in the original agreement? (hence you can just give the car back and walk away?)

 

[honeyman]

I'm with VW finance and I was thinking of changing, was given a trade in of 12K against 13.5K owed which I did expect (I didn't put much deposit down), He told me if I kept it a few month I was eligible to hand the car back (as long as it 's in reasonable condition for age milage etc) IIRC there are two milestones on my finance a point where they can't repossess the car, and as above a point where you just hand it back.

 

[eddiel34]

I bought my car new for the first time in my life with the intention of keeping it for a long time. I always felt that buying a second hand fast car brought it's own problems.

The trouble arises when you allow yourself to get into negative equity. But however you spin it devaluation is the biggest cost when buying a car.

With the Cupra the %drop is not as large as say a normal run of the mill car

At the other end of the scale, I've just read that Gordon Ramsey's Ferrari Scuderia is for sale at £50,000 less than he paid 6mths ago.

 

[SpursMadDave]

I think if you are worrying about residuals on a Cupra maybe you should be driving something else...

 

[Blade]

Did well with my LC(bought new at 15k sold after 3yrs for 9.5k). I was really pleased with my LCR ( bought new at 17.2k sold after 4yrs for 11k) so jumped into the K1. Time will tell with the mk2 Cupra but cars are a luxury afterall so enjoy them while you can.

 

[eddiel34]

How much of the cost of mods do you think you recoup. £720 Map, best part of £1000 exhaust etc.

 

[SpursMadDave]

How much of the cost of mods do you think you recoup. £720 Map, best part of £1000 exhaust etc.

Approximately give or take a few % here and there and obviously interest rates etc......














nothing

 

[Al]

I think if you are worrying about residuals on a Cupra maybe you should be driving something else...

Maybe, maybe not. Helpful to know in order to make up ones mind though

 

[SpursMadDave]

Maybe, maybe not. Helpful to know in order to make up ones mind though

Yeah it's always nice to know, certainly a buyers market at the moment though.
Im seriously thinking of upgrading my Hyundai Coupe 05 plate as ive seen stacks of 2/3 year old bargains to be had, Audi TT's, Jags, BMW's etc etc